Ukrainian Counteroffensive Starts With an Environmental Catastrophe: Nova Khakovka Dam Is Destroyed

Russian and Ukrainians Exchange Accusations - Massive Flooding in Course Will Force Civilian and Military Evacuations

After months of hyping and a myriad of conflicting statements by Kiev authorities, it seems that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has finally begun. During Monday, activities have increased and attacks are recorded throughout all the line of contact.

But during the night a catastrophic development changed the stakes in the southern Ukraine, as the Nova Khakovka Hydroelectric Power Plant was targeted by explosions, and the dam burst, putting the lives of THOUSANDS of people now in danger due to risk of flooding along Dnieper River.

Immediately Russians and Ukrainians started accusing each other for what amounts to a war crime.

Simplicius76 reported:

"This is the central, extremely important dam that was critical to the whole Kherson situation last year. It was the sole reason Russia retreated [last year], as the threat of destroying the dam kept their troops on the right/western bank of the Dnieper river highly vulnerable.

No one knows who destroyed it: Ukrainian analysts are saying Russia did it while Russians say it was the Ukrainians. However, the destruction did appear to come not long after a new wave of Russian cruise missile attacks launched by 6 Tu-95 bombers. Could Russia have destroyed the dam just as Ukraine began to kick off its large offensive, particularly since, as I wrote earlier, there were reports that Ukraine was trying to actualize a river crossing there?

It’s undecided who benefits and to whom it’s a detriment, as some believe that all Russian defenses on the eastern bank will be wiped away by the flood. However, the expanded river boundaries and elevated water levels would preclude Ukrainian crossing attempts, so it clearly seems to favor Russia there. We’ll have to wait and see how it develops as this is just breaking now, no pun intended."

Projected impact of the dam’s destruction.

Much debate is ongoing related to the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.

"More than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding. Hundreds of thousands of people could be affected.

The water supply to a significant part of the south of Ukraine may be destroyed. The destruction of the HPP could leave the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant without water for cooling.

In addition, the destruction of the Kakhovskaya dam will exclude the possibility of supplying water to Crimea in the coming years."

The mayor of Novaya Kakhovka, Leontiev, specified that the upper part of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station was destroyed as a result of shelling, but the dam itself was not destroyed.

Slavyangrad:

"The destruction of the dam has already led to the flooding of part of the coastal areas. The lower left bank of the Dnieper will suffer much more from the coming flood than the right bank controlled by Kiev. The enemy hopes to flood our defensive positions, primarily minefields.

This will make it easier for enemy troops to land troops and form bridgeheads, which will make it possible to pull back the forces of the RF Armed Forces. The likelihood that Kiev will conduct the main offensive in the Kherson region is still small - it is too difficult to provide the logistics of a major offensive in this format. But it is quite possible to expect an auxiliary strike to support the attack in the Zaporozhye direction.

Satellite image shows destroyed dam.

[…] But in itself, the destruction of the dam indicates the imminent start of the Ukrainian offensive. The enemy would not undermine it unnecessarily, just for the evil of Russia - the price of such dirty tricks is too high."

Both Russians and Ukrainians have sent rescue teams to help with the evacuations.

Dams like Nova Kahkovka are protected by the laws of war and the Geneva convention.

“Works and installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack, even where these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population. Other military objectives located at or in the vicinity of these works or installations shall not be made the object of attack if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces from the works or installations and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.”

Ukrainian formations have begun evacuation from the flooded islands downstream from the dam. They are being hit by Russian artillery and drones, as they board boats and try to escape.

People are rushing to buy water in the areas soon to be affected.

Intel Slava:

"There is panic in Dnepropetrovsk and Krivoy Rog [Ukrainian areas] due to the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station and the beginning of problems with the city's water supply.

People massively buy water in stores, fill bathtubs and containers with water."

As the blame game is ongoing, Russian channels remind us that "before the Kakhovka dam was blown up, Western analysts admitted Ukraine had the motive [to blow the dam] - NOT Russia. Now they're trying to erase these facts from the internet. They have to pretend the war crime was ordered by Putin, not Zelensky."